Modeling & Simulation

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services May 14, 2007 PDF Version (16 PDF pages)

Final Technical Report for DHHS Contract HHSP23320054301ER Please do not circulate without permission of the authors or the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. January 21, 2007

In previous work for ASPE, the University of Minnesota developed a model to simulate the effects of the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 on the take-up of high-deductible health insurance plans.

RIchard W. Johnson, Simone G. Schaner, Desmond Toohey, and Cori E. Uccello The Urban Institute   This report was prepared under contract between the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of Disability, Aging and Long-Term Care Policy (DALTCP) and the Urban Institute.

IntroductionWhat This Report Is About

To assess how different tax break proposals for private long-term care insurance might affect private coverage, better information is needed on the decision to purchase long-term care insurance and the sensitivity of the purchase decision to price changes. This report describes the results of efforts to model private long-term care insurance coverage and simulate policy reforms.

This report examines the potential for asset-based pre-funding of retirement income and disability insurance through an annuity that provides both income and long term care protection. The potential for such products is examined in the context of the possible use of reverse mortgage as a funding source for the annuity.

Chapter I - Program Evaluation at the Department of Health and Human ServicesThis Performance Improvement 2006 report presents to Congress a comprehensive summary of evaluation projects completed by the Department, The Office of the Secretary, and agencies comprising the Department, engage in extensive evaluation activities;

This Issue Brief presents an estimate of the number of children who meet the eligibility requirements for child care assistance under the Child Care and Development Fund. The estimates are produced by the Transfer Income Model (TRIM) developed by the Urban Institute under contract to ASPE.

The TRIM microsimulation model produces a baseline of Medicaid and SCHIP eligibility and enrollment using adjustments that correct for the undercount in program participation on the Current Population Survey (CPS). This report presents a detailed explanation of the TRIM mmethodology.