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New Estimates of the Cost of Preventive Vaccine Development and Potential Implications from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Publication Date
Authors
Aylin Sertkaya, Trinidad Beleche, Amber Jessup

The ASPE issue brief examines the research and development cost and duration associated with bringing novel vaccines to the U.S. market. The results indicate that bringing a novel vaccine to the U.S. market costs an estimated $886.8 million on average, and its development process lasts 10 years. Technological innovation, large public investments, increased review resources, and greater interaction with industry were among some of the activities that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and that contributed to reducing the COVID-19 vaccine development process to around 2 years. Using some data from the COVID-19 pandemic, we estimate that speeding the vaccine development timeline could be associated with significant reductions in development costs.

The accompanying report, "Preventive Vaccine Development", presents additional information on the strategies and associated costs, duration, and phase transition probabilities associated with developing preventive vaccines. It also presents an analysis of the impact of various strategies such as biomarkers, use of electronic health records, among other, on development costs, duration, and phase transition probabilities.

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