Unwinding the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Provision: Projected Enrollment Effects and Policy Approaches

This report provides current HHS projections of the number of individuals predicted to lose Medicaid coverage at the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) due to a change in eligibility or due to administrative churning. The report also predicts eligibility for alternative insurance coverage among those predicted to lose Medicaid eligibility and highlights legislative and administrative actions that can help minimize disruptions in coverage, including the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides enhanced Marketplace subsidies for 3 years that will benefit some individuals leaving Medicaid at the end of the PHE.

** This Issue Brief was corrected on March 3, 2023 to correct Figures 3 and 4

Related Products:

• Medicaid Churning and Continuity of Care
• Access to Marketplace Plans with Low Premiums on the Federal Platform
• Projected Coverage and Subsidy Impacts If the American Rescue Plan’s Marketplace Provisions Sunset in 2023