It is anticipated that extreme weather events due to climate change will increase the prevalence of a number of acute and chronic diseases. As a result, the demand for drugs to prevent or treat those conditions is likely to increase. If the anticipated increase in demand for these drugs is not planned for, already strained medical supply chains will be further strained, resulting in poor health outcomes among affected patient populations and additional costs to health systems.
In this study, we estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions will affect demand for drugs needed to treat them. To generate these estimates, we conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and grey literature and developed a medical condition–specific systems dynamics model.